Posts Tagged ‘projection’

Transitioning From 2010 to 2011

Thursday, January 13th, 2011

The farmland market definitely closed out 2010 on an upswing.  Many areas across the Midwest experienced a very active land market with the result being new high-water marks being set for farm prices.  The increase in commodities prices, combined with a relatively low supply of available farms in many areas, pushed buyers to place a premium on those farms that were on the market.

While it is ultimately anyone’s guess where we are headed in 2011, there are indicators out there that will help us see what lies ahead.  While some operators experienced poor yields in 2010 (mainly those growers with corn-after-corn), a majority of farmers were able to take advantage of the run-up we saw in the commodities markets, leaving them with the resources to be players in the market in 2011.  As long the futures markets continue their positive movement, farmers will continue to be aggressive in pushing the land market.  Another point brought up in a recent DTN/Progressive Farmer article (Farmland Continues Its Romp) is that some farmers used money from 2010 for new equipment, meaning that in 2011 any funds that would have been devoted to machinery could be diverted to the purchase of land.  The article also reminds us that many investors still see farmland as a solid “buy” because of the steady & known returns, not to mention the tangible aspect of owning farmland.

With all of the positives, the 2011 farmland market looks to be keeping the momentum that the 2010 market built up.  Are there any recent sales coming up in your area?  Let us know your opinion on where you see the farmland market headed as we break in 2011.

USDA August Crop Report

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Earlier this morning the USDA released their August estimate for 2010 crop production.  Both corn and soybean estimates were strong – soybean production (44 bushels per acre) is predicted to be in line with 2009 levels and corn levels are predicted to set new highs (165 bushels per acre).  However, even with the anticipated strong yields, the ever increasing worldwide demand is still expected to decrease corn stocks (soybean stocks look to remain unchanged).  So, how will this affect the commodities markets?  Well…it depends on who you ask and what indicators that they are using as predictors.  With the predicted large amounts of grain that should be produced this fall, one would think that this would lead to a drop in the futures markets.  However, many believe that the expected decrease in current corn stocks should push prices higher as we approach harvest.  At the time of this post, corn, soybeans and wheat were all seeing rallies in the futures markets.

What does this mean for the farmland real estate market?  The farmer-buyer’s ability to add acreage is dependent on having the funds to pay for said acreage.  The more income that a farmer receives, the more money that he/she will have to reinvest into their operation – whether it be a new tractor, 4 x 4 truck, or the 80 acres that is for sale across the road.  As we approach fall and farm sale season begins to ramp up, it will be important to keep an eye on the commodities markets, which will help determine the strength of the farmland market.

Interested in reading more about the USDA August Crop Report?  The DTN/Progressive Farmer website has a very informative analysis on their website (USDA Reports Summary).

Potential Pitfalls For the Farmland Market

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Even when times are going well, it is always a good idea  to be aware of potential warning signs.  While current segments of the current farmland market are doing better (e.g. Class A Farmland) than others (e.g. Recreational Land), the market as a whole has fared better than other sectors of the real estate market.  A recent article in Corn & Soybean Digest attempts to look into the future at where some problems could arise for the farmland real estate market.  The article (The Three Bears of Land Values), identifies 3 potential weak spots that could negatively affect the market:  1) A multi-year decline in commodity prices that would leave farmers strapped for cash and unable to afford to add farmland to their current operation; 2) Should inflation increase, and the Fed increases the interest rates to combat this issue, the ability of the farmland buyer to borrow money would be greatly affected; 3) Potential changes to tax laws.

No one can accurately predict the exact future.  Some, all, or none of the above factors may happen…or there may be some unforeseen issues that arise to impact farmland values.  However, it is important to know what potential issues are out there that have the potential to devalue what is many investor’s largest asset.

What are your thoughts on the article?  What problems do you see on the farmland market horizon?  We want to hear from you!

2010 OUTLOOK FOR ETHANOL

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

The last 18 or so months have been a bumpy ride for most ethanol companies and their investors.  Many of the ethanol plants that were scheduled to begin construction were put on indefinite hold and some of the larger ethanol production companies have been staring down bankruptcy.  That being said, the fuel remains a viable alternative to gasoline and many are predicting 2010 to be better year for the industry.  A recent article in The Des Moines Register offers speculation on where ethanol demand may be headed this year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently speculated that as the economy continues to recover in 2010 the demand for all fuel, including ethanol, will climb.  Also, new state and federal regulations are taking place this year which will require more biofuel production…and even more strict guidelines could be on the horizon.

Being involved in the ethanol industry the last few years has not always been a smooth ride…for everyone from the farmer to the production companies.  Let’s hope that the analysts are correct and that 2010 will show a correction in direction for this industry.

Read the entire Des Moines Register article here.

What are your thoughts on the state of ethanol?  Are you optimistic for a turn around for 2010?  Let us know at eric@loranda.com.

OUTLOOK FOR 2010 CASH RENTS STILL UNCERTAIN

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

With harvest dragging into November and with the Midwest still getting soaked with rain showers, 2010 cash rents are probably not the first priority for a lot of farmers right now.  However with Thanksgiving only 2 weeks away, the 2010 planting season is going to roll around before we know it.  Throughout the fall, we have posted several discussions about where experts think the 2010 cash rent market may end up at.  In a recent article on FarmWeekNow.com, University of Illinois Extension farm management specialist, Gary Schnitkey, weighs in with his opinion.

In the article, Schnitkey admits that setting 2010 cash rent levels is going to be tricky.  Schnitkey suggests that even if commodity prices are higher in 2010 than they were in 2009, they will still be below 2007/2008 prices – which was when many of the multi-year current cash rent contracts were locked in.  Schnitkey goes on to say that when taking estimated commodity prices into effect, one would assume that cash rents would decrease, however Schnitkey thinks we will more than likely see rents remain stable in 2010.

To read the entire article, click here.

Farmers and landlords – have you locked in your cash rents for 2010?  In what direction are you seeing rents move?  Let us know at eric@loranda.com

Source: www.farmweeknow.com