Posts Tagged ‘farmers’

2012 Farm Bill Discussions Heating Up

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Work on the new farm bill is beginning to move forward.  As with similar legislation in the past, various farm groups are submitting their proposals to Congress trying to protect and promote the specific interests of their constituents.  There is one big difference this time around… any bill that gets passed will be closely scrutinized for its impact on the federal budget.  Or better stated, there’s a lot less money to pass around now and there will be a special emphasis on making sure that funds are being spent wisely.

Earlier this week, U.S. Agricultural Secretary Thomas Vilsack outlined his priorities for the 2012 bill in a speech to workers in Ankeny, IA, as outlined in this abcnews.com article (Vilsack Says Farm Bill Must Improve Disaster Aid).  Aid to farmers affected by natural disaster, increased funding for agricultural research, and support for conservation projects were at the top of his list.  He admitted that USDA programs will need to be streamlined and easier to understand – a common complaint in the past.

I think that it is important to point out that nearly 75% of the existing $284 billion bill is used for nutrition, e.g. food stamps and school lunch programs.  Not that I don’t deem this programs worthy… they are.  But I think there are many people that believe that the Farm Bill only rewards the producers of agricultural products, without realizing that many of their friends and neighbors are also probably benefitting.

One important provision that likely will be eliminated in the new bill – direct payments to farmers and landowners.  While conceptually the idea of direct payments seemed like a reasonable way to transition farmers away from government support, the reality (especially with record high commodity prices) bordered on a public relations disaster – “rich farmers are earning record profits and still receiving government subsidies.”   This program is likely to be replaced with an improved insurance program that will protect producers when a true natural disaster strikes, as we’ve seen in Texas this year.

If history is a good indictor, then the final bill will likely be somewhat different than the pre-bill discussions.  And as mentioned earlier, the impact on the budget may be what ultimately decides the program’s fate.

2012 Indiana Rent Prices Headed Up

Thursday, September 22nd, 2011

While grain prices have cooled off recently, the ag industry is still looking to have a very healthy 2011 crop year.  Yields in many areas are much better than anticipated, and when combined with commodity prices that are still sitting at high levels, producers are figuring to come out in good shape this year.  Landlords that are looking to renew and/or renegotiate rent contracts for 2012 are looking to increase their profitability as well.  A recent article on AgWeb.com (2012 Cash Rents to Increase with Production Costs, Incomes) quoted a recent Purdue Extension study that suggests Indiana farmers could see a similar jump in rent prices as they did from last year – around 13 %.

The driving factor continues to be high grain prices.  Worldwide demand for US grains appears to be strong through at least the next 12-18 months, which should keep prices strong.  However, many farmers are going to be hit with higher input costs in 2012, mainly fuel and fertilizer.  As we saw in 2007 and 2008, the margins at $7 corn are sometimes no greater for producers than they are at $3.50 corn.

How will this affect the land market?  At most sales, farmers have been an integral component on driving sales.  While we have seen a strong demand from individual and institutional investors, it is typically the local farmer base that is one one of the biggest groups bidding on the land.  As rents and other input costs go up, their available disposable income will decrease, giving them less cash on hand to attempt to buy farmland.

Cheap Money Keeps Getting Cheaper

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

Commodity prices are often cited as the biggest driver of farmland prices… and deservedly so.  Without $7.00 corn I doubt that we would see $10,000 land.  But let’s not ignore the other big dog in the room, i.e., interest rates.  A recent article by Linda H. Smith on dtnprogressivefarmer.com (Time to Reap Cheap Money) provides a good overview of the interest rate market. For example, in the four Corn Belt states served by Farm Credit Services of Mid-America, 20-year farm mortgages are running under 5%. This is a definite boon for those buying land at current prices, and a real opportunity for existing landowners to refinance their debt at lower rates.

Probably the biggest unknown at this stage is how long these low rates will last.  Some economists, notably Kansas State professor Allen Featherstone, believe that there will be a small uptick at some point – “Based on an analysis of Treasury yields, the market expects somewhat higher interest rates in the future; it expects inflation to rise, but only by about one percentage point”.  Another interesting insight from Featherstone – “When the financial crisis hit in October 2008, five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) spiked to four percentage points over inflation. Now, it has collapsed below zero. In other words, traders are paying to hold the money.”

These low rates obviously help borrowers, but they also have drawn investor cash from C.D.s and bonds into the farmland market.  When you combine the current interest rate environment with record grain prices, the argument that farmland values are merely a speculative bubble ready to burst seems a bit absurd. In reality, both farmers and investors are buying land for solid economic reasons, not for speculative purposes.

Institutional Investors Weigh In

Friday, August 19th, 2011

We’ve regularly talked about how aggressive many farmers have been in buying land the past several months.  This hasn’t been an intentional slight to investors… it’s just that most of the “winners” at the high priced auctions have been local farmers who currently have the financial resources to add to their land holdings.  I only think it’s fair that we now hear from the investors who have also been active buyers.  A recent article by Seth Lubove on Bloomberg.com (Being Like Soros in Buying Farmland Reaps Annual Gains of 16%) provides some insight into the mindset of the non-farmer land buyer and how they view agricultural property as an excellent investment opportunity, even at today’s prices.

In reading the article, it was interesting to note that many of these investors are motivated by the same factors – farmland is a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty; the demand for food is growing; etc. – all basic economic reasons that land would be a good investment.  They rarely talk about the emotional pull of owning land (like many farmers) though some do share stories about visiting or working on farms in their youth.  They also consistently talk about owning land for the long term, a trait that we try to stress to all our clients as well.

I hope in ten years that Bloomberg does a follow up story on these same people.  Are they really committed to owning land for an extended period of time, or have they simply jumped into the market because it is currently the most prudent asset to buy?

Non-Farmers Still Buying Land

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Though much has been written about how active farmers have been in the land market lately, investors have also been participating in the buying frenzy.  A recent article by Associated Press writer Bernard Condon (Down on the Farm, Investors See Big Potential) describes the attraction to agricultural properties by the non-farmer. 

These new buyers aren’t the big institutional funds that many fear.  Instead, they’re individual investors who have been described as “gentlemen farmers” in the media, though perhaps something worse by the farmers they’re competing with to buy land.  Many have no ties to farming and still don’t like getting their hands dirty.  But they do have money and the belief that an investment in the food chain is a good long-term bet.

Is the influx of new money into land simply a short term phenomenon? Perhaps, but I think many of these buyers are pretty astute investors and are not simply looking to buy a farm and then flip it for a quick profit.  From a practical standpoint, they really don’t comprise a very big part of the demand for land so they likely won’t have a very big impact on the market as a whole.  And as much as many farmers dislike any outside money competing for land, this outside capital can be critically important to the farmers who must rent land because they don’t have the financial resources to buy it.