Archive for April, 2011

Agri-Businesses Doing Well Too!

Thursday, April 28th, 2011

It’s widely known that Midwestern agriculture has generated record profits the past few years.  The obvious beneficiaries have been operating farmers and absentee landowners.  Yet, others have benefitted as well. For example, rural businesses frequented by farmers (both ag and non-ag) have seen greater success, primarily because farmers have more money to spend.  And as might be expected, larger agricultural companies have flourished, e.g. equipment manufacturers, seed and chemical producers, and grain processors.  A recent article on the University of Illinois farmdoc web site (Performance of Publicly Traded Agricultural Firms) points out that while plenty of money is being made at the country level it is also being made at the corporate level as well.

To help track profits and performance of these larger firms, an index of 21 publicly traded agriculturally related companies was created.  The returns from this index were then compared with the returns from the S & P 500.  Except for 2008 (when commodity prices and farm income was down), the ag index has greatly exceeded the S & P. Part of this can easily be attributed to fact that farmer will upgrade equipment and increase fertilizer usage when excess funds are available, especially since these expenses are typically a great way offset income for tax purposes.  Yet, many have also speculated that there may be some “price gouging” from certain companies, especially those that farmers must buy from every year in order to plant a crop. Regardless, when money is being made in an industry, everyone wants a little (or big!) part of the pie.

As land prices have risen beyond the reach of many investors, I think that buying stock in agricultural companies may be the best, and easiest, way to ride the food wave.  Demand for agricultural products will continue to grow in the future, and the companies that are heavily involved in the industry should continue to be profitable.

Keeping Farm Lending In Check

Thursday, April 21st, 2011

We are currently in the middle of a very bullish farmland market. Land sales in many areas across the Midwest are breaking records with each new auction.  The question is – What can slow down this ride that we are on?  There are many factors at play, but one key component is interest rates for farm loans and overall credit in the farm industry.  A recent Reuters article (U.S. Farmland Boom May Carry Long-Term Risk: FDIC) takes a look at ag lending practices and how changes may affect farming operations and the land market.

One important point the article mentions is that the FDIC does not see a problem at the current time with lending in agriculture.  One reason for this is that ag lenders and borrowers have long memories and have not forgotten the market crash in the early 1980’s, which was partly caused by many bad loans being given to borrowers with not enough equity to support the loans they received.  Low interest rates are definitely a major factor in helping fuel the market we are currently in.  That being said, most buyers that we have worked with are laying out significant amounts of cash as part of farm purchases.  While loans are still involved in most cases, buyers are avoiding putting themselves into highly leveraged situations that many farm owners found themselves in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

The article also offers up that lending institutions are doing their homework before handing out a loan.  They are requiring more money down and keeping repayment schedules strict to attempt to minimize bad loans.  The article also states that lenders have become more comfortable with simply turning down business that they feel would put their company in a bad position.

While it is possible to find support to both sides of the argument of if the farmland market is a bubble ready to burst, I think that the continued practicing of conservative lending practices, coupled with the sensibility of buyers to not over extend themselves, will help keep the farmland market strong.

Does a Lease Impact Sale Price in Today’s Farmland Market?

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

I’ve been buying and selling farms for nearly 30 years.  One of the first things I learned – an existing lease will discount the sale price of a farm.  The appraiser will tell you it’s because the buyer does not get the “full bundle of rights”, which includes the right to lease to whomever he chooses, on whatever terms he chooses.  The seasoned broker explains it differently – a farmer does not like to bid on a property that he cannot immediately take full possession of.  Better stated… farmers don’t like to be landlords for others.  They want to plant and harvest the crops themselves.  In theory, investors would still be interested in a lease encumbered parcel.  But they too may discount the price because the lease terms, or the farmer, aren’t what they want.

The amount of the discount will vary depending on the length of the lease, the quality of the ground, and how competitive the neighbors are.  For many years, people thought a price reduction of $200 – $300 per acre was appropriate.  Today, however, in the era of $7.00 corn, we have witnessed that discount shrink considerably.  And at some recent auctions I’ve attended, there has been no discount at all.

So what has changed?  I personally believe there are two factors at play. The first is the fact that both farmers and investors are flush with cash at the present.  And farmers have always attempted to buy land when they’ve had the financial ability to do so.  The second is the fact that so little land is now on the market with no increase in supply likely.  So the farmer has a choice… A. I can wait until next fall and hope that a farm in my area will be for sale; or, B. I can buy the farm with the existing lease now, realizing that I only have to ride with the lease for one year.  This isn’t the ideal scenario, but when there’s little on the market for sale, buying now with a lease is better (and possibly cheaper) than waiting and hoping that something will pop-up later. 

The farms where I’ve seen this happen this winter had some common features – they had good quality soils; they were situated in an area where nothing had sold for quite some time; and the surrounding farmers were financially strong.  Not all farms will fit this criterion so the results may differ.  And if/when commodity prices fall in the future, the lease discount may reappear.  Bottom line – the rules are different now.  Assuming there are any rules at all.

Agriculture Not Immune To Budget Cuts

Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

As our leaders in Washington work through ways to reduce our budget, agriculture and the upcoming Farm Bill are being looked at as possible places to trim expenses.  A recent blog post on DTN/Progressive Farmer (Ag Cuts Would Wait on Farm Bill) takes a look at some of the recent discussions currently taking place regarding agriculture.  The main focus of Congress appears to be on the direct payments to producers.  When congressmen look at the direct payment system, and then look at headlines talking about near-record profit predictions for farmers, their initial reaction is, “Why are we supporting an industry that is flourishing and appears to be able to support itself?”  It’s true, 2011 is shaping up to be very profitable for the ag industry.  To think that there is nowhere to go but up is foolhardy, however.  We saw a similar run-up in the commodities markets in 2007, followed by corn and beans futures being sliced in half not long after.  The price supports were put in place for a reason – to ensure that America produces the highest quality and most abundant grain in the world.  It would be dangerous to assume that the income stream that farmers should see in 2011 will be there every year.  Past history has shown us it won’t be.

Iowa Land Value Survey Results

Friday, April 1st, 2011

Last week, we reported on recent trends in the Illinois farmland market.  This week, we want to take a look at the picture in Iowa.  As you might expect, values in the Hawkeye state have moved sharply higher the past 12 months.  A recent article by Dan Piller in the Des Moines Register (IA Farmland Values Jump 24% in Last Year) provides a good analysis of what has happened and why.

There were a few things in the article that I found interesting…

1. Though the market has risen by 24% the past 12 months, much of this increase has only taken place in the last 6 (19.7%). 

2. Despite high grain prices, the areas showing the biggest gains in IA were the livestock heavy regions.  Yes, feed costs are higher but these have been offset by higher meat prices.  Both the hog and cattle industries were profitable in 2010 - the first time in four years.

3. More that 70% of recent land sales in IA were to neighboring farmers.  This contradicts the argument that “outside money” has been a major force.

4. Perhaps the most comforting comment in the article, at least for the long-term health of the land market… Iowa banks have reported generally flat demand for agricultural loans as cash-rich farmers write checks for land and equipment rather than taking out loans

The debate on how long this land price surge can continue is on-going.  That said, if the March 31 USDA crop reports are any indication (corn is much higher as I type this article) then the land market should continue strong for the foreseeable future.