Archive for March, 2010

What Can Bring Down Farmland Values?

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

While we have definitely seen certain sectors of the farmland real estate industry hit hard by the tough economic times we are in (see: Recreational Land), the demand for high-quality Midwest row-crop land appears to be as strong as ever.  Sales in East-Central Illinois continue to be in the $6,000 – $7,000 per acre range and there have been sales in Western Illinois for over $8,000 per acre.  However, with any market, there are going to be ebbs and flows.  A recent article by DTN/Progressive Farmer analyzes a few factors hat could negatively affect farmland values in the future.  Read the full article – What Could Burst Land’s Bubble?

The author looks at 2 possible factors – Multiple consecutive years of low farm income and increasing interest rates.  If a situation were to occur, whether it be a natural disaster, a decrease in demand for corn based products (e.g. Ethanol or high-fructose corn syrup), or simply the fear of the unknown, where commodity prices languished at low levels for many years, this would eventually negatively affect land prices.  At lower commodities prices, farmers will not be able to continue to pay at the same levels of rent payments.  With lower rent payments, the landlord’s return on his/her property is going to be lower, which will finally affect the farm ’s value.

The situation that the author lays out with regards to interest rates is that if interest rates increase, credit may become harder for some farmer-landowners to acquire all the necessary credit to continue their operation.

While neither of these situations appears very likely today, it is always wise to seek out possible weak points in the market so that we as investors can be prepared as best as we can.

What are your thoughts on where the farmland market currently is and where it may be headed?

Why Don’t We All Own Some Farmland?

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Last week I discussed the investment performance of Illinois Farmland, when compared to other asset classes and investment indices since 1970.  The research I sourced for the post was completed by Bruce Sherrick, Ph.D., from the University of Illinois.  The bottom line of Dr. Sherrick’s research showed that Illinois farmland performed very favorably when measured against nearly every other investment type, whether stocks, government or corporate bonds, real estate investment trusts (REITS), commercial paper, or emerging markets.  Which all begs the question, why don’t we all own some farmland?  I believe there are several reasons for why normal, everyday investors choose to bypass including some farmland holdings in their respective investments portfolios. 

The first may involve a lesser degree of liquidity.  All real estate – whether a farm, home, or commercial building – is generally less liquid than that of a stock or bond.  I can always login to a TD Ameritrade or e-Trade account, and almost instantly sell my stock holdings.  Real estate purchases and sales are usually more involved, taking more time and often at a higher cost, than that for stock or bond investments.  This creates a barrier for some potential land investors. 

Second, investing in farmland normally involves a larger initial investment.  Unlike an investment in stock mutual funds for my Roth IRA, it can be difficult – if not impossible – to purchase $5000 worth of farmland.  An 80-acre tract of land in central-Illinois can command as much at $8000 per acre, or $640k total, which can make entry into farmland ownership somewhat difficult for many individuals.  While there are obviously smaller tracts of land that can be purchased, an 80-acre tract is not “large” by today’s operational farmland standards – and this fact can create a real barrier to entry for many potential landowners.

Third, normal stock and bond investing involves more clear and efficient information.  If you want to learn about a particular company, you can jump on the Internet and do oodles of research on individual stock holdings through Yahoo or Google.  And new information for these markets is available every minute of every trading day.  By contrast, the farmland market can be less clear and efficient, and has a somewhat higher learning curve.  If you didn’t grow up on a farm, where you learned the true ins-and-outs of agriculture, learning about farmland ownership and operation can be challenging.  In addition, as an individual with little or no farm experience, figuring out who you can trust can be equally challenging. 

Next, for some people, farmland isn’t as exciting as other investment alternatives.  Sure, the return history and general stability of farmland as an investment are clear.  But farmland is not fancy – after all, we’re talking about dirt, here!  And to that end, some investors prefer to operate in what they perceive to be a more “sophisticated” manner (e.g., think credit default swaps).  The currently steady 3-5% annual cash returns, isn’t something you’d often brag about at a cocktail party – even though a steady 3-5% (excluding appreciation) looks tremendous when compared with the recent whipsaw in stocks. 

Finally, for many people, farmland doesn’t even hit their radar when considering investments because they are so removed from it.  Farmland is not like stocks, bonds, and many other asset classes that are actively marketed to the masses by large multi-national firms.  Sure, farmland brokerages and land auction companies work very hard to ensure that land offerings are well known.  But when you consider the likes of e-Trade, for example, which runs Super Bowl commercials featuring talking babies – and countless other investment companies with massive marketing budgets – farmland as an investment alternative doesn’t seem to be as ingrained in the psyche of the public as other investment offerings.

So while it’s clear that farmland has proven itself as a great long-term investment, there are several reasons that a limited number of people actually own farmland.  However, if you are interested in adding farmland to your investment holdings, be sure to contact a firm and/or individual that have experience in the marketplace.  Make sure you do your homework on the firm and/or individual – ask for references, specific property experience, and put a sharp pencil to the particulars of any deal.  With a little work you, too, may find that owning land can be a very worthwhile venture.

Illinois Farmland As An Investment

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

This morning I attended the annual “Land Values Conference” in Bloomington, IL, hosted by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers.  This conference was a 2-day event that featured several speakers on topics ranging from farm lease trends, to farm management decisions, to recent performance of Illinois farmland as an asset class.  One of the more interesting topics to me was presented by Bruce Sherrick, Ph.D., an agricultural finance professor from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.  (I’ve always had an interest in Bruce’s take on things, as I served as a teaching assistant for him many years ago while attending graduate school at the University of Illinois.)  Specifically, Bruce updated the attendees on the performance of Illinois farmland when compared to alternative investments.  And what he had to say was pretty remarkable.  In particular, Bruce concluded that there is no other widely recognized asset class or investment index – e.g., the S & P 500; the Dow; Aaa and Baa rated corporate bonds; government bonds; real estate investment trusts; emerging market stock index (EAFE) – that has outperformed Illinois farmland as an investment since 1970.

From 1970 through 2009, the average annual return for Illinois farmland was 10.25% – this includes both income and appreciation.  For all of the mentioned alternative asset or index investments, the closest competitors to Illinois farmland were the returns realized from “Baa” corporate bonds (9.43%) and Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, which returned an average of 9% over the same period.

Bruce also evaluated the returns of the mentioned asset classes over the 1990-2009 time period, and the results for Illinois farmland are equally impressive.  While REITs do outperform Illinois farmland by .03% over the shorter time period – 10.43% vs. 10.40% – the risk involved with REITs was shown to be nearly 8 times greater than the investment risk for Illinois farmland.  For most investors, I think they’d give up 3 hundreths of a percent of return in exchange for an investment with a dramatically lower risk profile!

Which all begs the question, why don’t more people include farmland in their investment portfolio?  I’ll save some of the answers to that question for an upcoming blog post.  But what I took away from Bruce’s presentation this morning confirmed what I have long known – Illinois farmland has been an impressively performing asset that has provided a consistent annual return in the form of rental income, with an equally consistent record of asset price appreciation.  For more information on Bruce’s research and presentation, order a copy of the 2010 Illinois Farmland Values & Lease Trends report from the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers website, or visit the University of Illinois’ FarmDoc website.  And if you’d like to discuss farmland as an investment, please also feel free to contact me at doug@loranda.com.

Sowing the Seeds of Discontent

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

I bet many people today in the Midwest still view agriculture primarily as an industry dominated by small and/or mid-size farmers who till the soil in hopes of earning a living.  While this is an accurate portrayal in many communities, some recent governmental action in Washington is beginning to shed a new light on the other side of agriculture – the agribusinesses that sell the inputs that farmers use, and buy the products that farmers produce.

Some of the agribusinesses in question, especially those in the seed industry, have grown so large that many fear that have nearly monopolistic powers.  A recent article in the New York Times Rapid Rise in Seed Prices Draws U.S. Scrutiny discusses many of the charges, counter-charges, and challenges that both the small farmers and the mega-firms now face.  There are two factors that both sides agree on… 1.  Seed prices for corn and soybeans have increased rapidly the past 10 years – up nearly 110% since 2001 versus a rise of only 20% in the consumer price index; and 2. Yields from the seeds being planted have increased thanks to extensive use of plant breeding and bio-technology.

Unfortunately, it’s what the two sides can’t agree on that is causing the government to step in. Are seed companies justified in charging more if the product is yielding more?  Should they be forced to share their technology with competitors, after they have made a huge investment in R & D to develop these seeds?  What is considered a “reasonable” profit?  How much control should any one firm have in the marketplace, especially in a food-producing industry?

These are just a few of many issues that will be discussed the next few weeks as the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Justice hold hearings to address the concerns on both sides.  Only time will tell if the government will have to take action to mediate the dispute, or whether the sides can come to an agreement on their own. I personally hope the sides can work things out.  The results from applying technology to increase plant crop yields the past few years have been incredible.  And in my opinion, it’s primarily because the government hasn’t been involved.  It’s almost ironic to think that the ability to feed the world’s population may start with an agreement over a tiny seed.

THE INCREASING TREND OF ABSENTEE LANDLORDS

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

Of those of you out there who cash rent land, do your landlords live in the area or do they live out of the county or even the state?  A recent article in The Progress Report takes a look at studies done by Iowa State economists on cash rent payments in Iowa and where those payments are ending up.  (Read the article, The Flow of Money From Rented Land in Iowa) Are the rent payments going to the landowner who lives across from the farm or to the one who lives halfway across the country?

What they found is that nearly a quarter of Iowa landowners who are receiving cash rent live outside the state of Iowa.  In some of the more fertile counties, such as Kossuth Co., this meant that roughly $13 million dollars left the county last year in the form of cash rent payments.  Is this a bad thing?  Not necessarily.  As society has trended towards more urban living over the last 50-60 years, it only makes sense that there are going to be less and less farmland owners that live in the area as farms are handed down through the generations.

What is important is that tenants and landlords stay in communication, whether they live 2 miles from each other or 2,000 miles.  As with anything, an open channel of communication will make doing business much easier.

I will go back to the question I initially asked.  How many of you farmers have landlords that live in another state?  What is your relationship like with them?  How about landowners that are reading this.  Do you own ground in a state other than which you live in?  Are you happy with the level of communication that you have with your tenant?  Let us know at eric@loranda.com.